Octa crypto snapshot: investors behavior predictions after Bitcoin halving
- Written by Daily Sun
The 2024 Bitcoin halving, which crypto investors have been expecting for four years, has been finalised. The reward per block has been reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The next cut will occur in 2028, with the reward reduced to 1.5625 BTC. The ultimate 64th halving will occur around the year 2140, which will mean that all 21 million coins have been mined, and the issuance of new Bitcoins will cease. Once this happens, the miners will have to find other ways to make money in the crypto world.
Halving effect on the Bitcoin price
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin exchange rate is around $65,000. Many analysts expect the halving to catalyse further BTC price growth in the long term.
Historically, with each new cycle following a halving event, the price of Bitcoin reached a new high. For example, in late 2013, about a year after the first halving, Bitcoin reached the $1,200 mark. The next market cycle peaked at $20k per Bitcoin in late 2017 and went up to $69k in late 2021 before collapsing again. However, in the last six months, the value of BTC has already risen by about 140%. In comparison, over the same period, the price of Ethereum, the second most crucial cryptocurrency, has only increased by 85%.
'The current situation is unique: Bitcoin, for the first time, exceeded the previous high before halving, reaching $73,000 in March 2024', said Kar Yong Ang, Octa Broker financial analyst. He added that demand from the U.S. bitcoin ETFs launched in January was a vital factor in that price rise.
At the same time, miners' revenues will drop by exactly half. As a result, they will have to spend twice as much time and twice as much electricity to get the usual amount of cryptocurrency. And since energy is not cheap, the weakest players are expected to leave the market. In other words, we expect a supply shortage against the backdrop of increasing demand.
The halving of Bitcoin is a milestone in the history of the major cryptocurrency, which shows its limited issuance and inherent mechanisms to protect against inflation. Many believe that Bitcoin, with its deflationary model, is well positioned to become a reliable store of value in an unstable global economy, much like traditional gold—but only digitally.
If we draw historical parallels, Bitcoin should enter an intense growth phase around the end of 2024, after which it should exceed $200,000. The current conditions are very different from those observed in 2020 because the demand for cryptocurrency is extremely high due to ETFs, and its deficit is already felt today.
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